Can Alavés Upset Real Madrid? Match Preview of the Big La Liga Clash

Match Preview & Data-Backed Context

Head-to-Head and Historical Dominance
Historically, Real Madrid have overwhelmingly dominated this fixture. In the last 26 official matches between the two clubs, Real Madrid have won 22 times, Alavés only 3, and there has been 1 draw.
Overall, Real Madrid have scored many more goals across these encounters than Alavés, demonstrating a clear superiority in most past matches.
Recent Matches & Form (2024–2025 context)
In their most recent meeting (April 13, 2025), Real Madrid secured a 1–0 away win at Alavés even while being reduced to 10 men.
Throughout the 2025 season, Real Madrid’s offensive output has been strong: they average over two goals per match.
On the other hand, Alavés has struggled to score consistently their seasonal average is modest, and their offense rarely poses a sustained threat at this level.
Patterns and Match Expectations
Statistically, when these two teams meet, matches tend to produce over 1.5 goals, often more than 2.5 combined goals.
Given Real Madrid’s attacking strength away from home and Alavés’s defensive vulnerabilities, the pattern suggests a match where Real Madrid control possession, create chances, and are likely to score at least once.

Based on historical data, recent form, offensive averages, and head-to-head record: Real Madrid are strong favorites to win.
Likely outcome: Real Madrid win, probably 2–0 or 3–1, depending on how aggressively Alavés tries to attack (which could leave them open at the back).
It is possible Alavés could snatch a goal especially if they defend compactly and exploit counterattacks but consistently overcoming Real Madrid’s defense seems unlikely under current conditions.

Real Madrid’s attacking firepower vs. Alavés’s defense: Madrid’s forwards and midfielders create chances frequently; if Alavés misses early defensive focus, they could concede quickly.
Psychological pressure on underdogs: Alavés playing at home may raise motivation but also pressure; a mistake could be costly.
Motivation for Real Madrid: Given their dominance historically, they may treat this as a must-win to stay competitive, fueling their intensity.
Chance of counterattack / upset: In football, surprises happen a disciplined Alavés defense + a rapid counterattack could make the difference, especially if Madrid underestimates them.

All signs history, form, stats point toward a comfortable win for Real Madrid. While football is never safe from surprises, under current conditions, the likelihood of a Real Madrid victory is high.
If you’re watching or betting, expect Madrid to control the match, create scoring opportunities, and likely emerge with a solid win. Alavés will need near-perfect defense and smart counterattack play to even challenge them.